Summer COVID cases set to reach 2 million with 10 million isolating
pharmafile | July 7, 2021 | News story | Research and Development | COVID-19, Lockdown, UK, Vaccine, government
Analysis from the Guardian has found that over two million people could contract COVID-19 this summer, which could therefore lead to over 10 million people being forced to self-isolate.
These figures have been estimated from data modelling presented to MPs, which suggested infections could reach 50,000 a day by July 19 and then 100,000 a day later in the summer.
100,000 daily infections is still an unprecedented figure in the UK, with the highest figure reported so far reaching 81,000 in December last year.
Projections of case numbers vary greatly, however, even with a modest estimation of a daily average of 35,000 cases a day from now until July 19, and an average of 60,000 from then until August 16 would come to a total above 2 million.
As it stands today, NHS test and trace contacts an average of 3.2 people for each confirmed case, but amid the more widespread social mixing of last summer it was closer to five, giving a potentially affected pool exceeding 10 million people. By law, until August 16, all those coming into contact with a COVID case will have to isolate for 10 days after exposure.
These figures come as Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, said England was entering “uncharted territory” in its wholesale scrapping of lockdown rules from July 19.
Javid also announced that anyone who has been double-vaccinated will not have to isolate after coming into contact with a confirmed COVID case from August 16, with under-18s also exempt.
The Guardian has reported that ministers were warned that waiving the requirement for contacts to isolate immediately would result in cases being up to 25% higher than if waiting another four weeks to do so.
A decision on travel rules is set to be made on Thursday, with ministers reportedly favouring a policy that would take effect before August to waive quarantine rules for double-vaccinated passengers from amber-list countries to England.
Arguments remain around the lifting of all COVID restrictions, as the government believe the rate of vaccinations will outpace the rising infection rates.
However, the latest official data however, shows the number of people who are in hospital with COVID-19 has increased by 38% in the past week to 1,988 – the fastest rate of increase since last October.
Speaking in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Javid said: “This pandemic is far from over and we will continue to proceed with caution. But we are increasingly confident that our plan is working, and that we can soon begin a new chapter, based on the foundations of personal responsibility and common sense rather than the blunt instrument of rules and regulations.”
Kat Jenkins
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