Slow recovery expected for epilepsy market
pharmafile | May 27, 2010 | News story | Sales and Marketing | Datamonitor, Keppra, UCB, epilepsy
The global market for epilepsy treatments is expected to make a slow recovery after a wave of patent expiries from 2008-10.
Analysts at Datamonitor say the upcoming launch of several new brands will keep the market afloat, but the industry is unlikely to replicate the commercial success of UCB’s Keppra, which is in the final throws of losing its market exclusivity.
Daniel Chancellor, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor, said: “Several late-stage pipeline drugs are set to launch and perform well commercially over the next three years, however excitement about their potential benefit is dampened by scepticism among experts in the field, who are waiting for a truly anti-epileptogenic treatment to satisfy key unmet needs in epilepsy.”
Of the anti-epileptic drugs in the pipeline, Datamonitor expects Sepracor/Eisai’s Stedesa and UCB’s Rikelta to become the most commercially successful, with both set to achieve peak annual sales of over $350 million during the 10-year forecast period.
Chancellor concluded: “Despite the wide array of approved treatments, several unmet needs still exist that continue to entice pharmaceutical companies into developing the next generation of epilepsy therapies.
“However, given the heterogeneity of epilepsy, the current treatment paradigm and saturation of the market, any company hoping to produce a drug that emulates the commercial success of Keppra will likely be disappointed.”
The strongest growth is likely to come from Japan, where sales are expected to double in value to around $430m by 2019, aided by uptake of second-generation antiepileptic drugs. This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%.
Meanwhile the analysts say epilepsy sales in the five major European markets will withstand the impact of Keppra’s loss of patent protection, keeping a CAGR of 3.7% to 2019, when the market is forecast to be worth $1.5 billion.
But the US market will not return to pre-patent cliff values of $3 billion until 2016, with Pfizer’s Lyrica, UCB’s Vimpat and pipeline compounds all contributing to the recovery. This will be followed by a slight decline to $2.9 billion in 2019, providing a CAGR of 2.7% over the forecast period.
Ben Adams
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