Sales forecasts leave Sovaldi top and Januvia lagging
pharmafile | May 23, 2014 | News story | Sales and Marketing | Gilead, Januvia, Merck, diabetes, ep, hep C, sovaldi
Sovaldi has topped analysts’ estimates for future growth but Merck’s big-selling diabetes drug Januvia is falling by the wayside.
This is according to analysts at EvaluatePharma, who say that the seemingly unstoppable force that is Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) has seen a huge $6 billion added to consensus for 2018.
This comes as equity analysts have returned to their spreadsheets and re-assessed the drug’s future as huge demand – and a high price – increase the incredible trajectory of the new hepatitis C therapy.
The drug costs $1,000 per day or $84,000 for a full course of treatment and has come under attack in the US for its price tag. But Gilead’s treatment enjoys the best cure rates on the market in a quicker time and with fewer side effects than its rivals, making its rise inevitable.
Other big beneficiaries of improving outlooks such as the anti PD-1 cancer antibodies are equally predictable, although the fact that Sanofi’s insulin Lantus makes the top five is perhaps more surprising analysts say (see table below).
But on the downside EP notes the ongoing struggles of Merck’s Januvia and the disappointing launches of two Pfizer drugs: Xeljanz (tofacitinib) for autoimmune disorders and its blood thinner Eliquis (apixaban) – which was set for $4 billion in peak sales – have seen sales projections for these products fall severely.
Januvia has seen the biggest hit however as projections for its growth have fallen by $3 billion over the past year.
The biggest consensus upgrades over the past 12 months according to EP are:
|
Product |
Company |
Status |
WW sales by 2018 |
Change over one year |
|
Sovaldi |
Gilead |
Marketed/Filed |
$13.2 billion |
$6 billion |
|
Nivolumab |
BMS |
Phase III |
$3.9 billion |
$2.7 billion |
|
MK-3475 |
Merck |
Filed |
$2.8 billion |
$2.7 billion |
|
Lantus |
Sanofi |
Marketed |
$10.1 billion |
$2 billion |
|
Kadcyla |
Roche |
Marketed |
$3.6 billion |
$2 billion |
And the biggest consensus downgrades over the past 12 months are:
|
Product |
Company |
Status |
WW sales by 2018 |
Change over one year |
|
Januvia |
Merck |
Marketed |
$6.7 billion |
($3 billion) |
|
Seretide |
GSK |
Marketed |
$4.3 billion |
($1.7 billion) |
|
Xeljanz |
Pfizer |
Marketed |
$1.3 billion |
($1.3 billion) |
|
Eliquis |
BMS/Pfizer |
Marketed |
$2.7 billion |
($1 billion) |
Growers
Forecasts for Sovaldi and the combination pill that is awaiting approval have been climbing gradually: a huge $2.4 billion of first-quarter sales prompted another big lift to numbers.
Whether the franchise can meet these expectations is the biggest question for Gilead Sciences and its investors over the coming months, according to EP. The analysts also say that the resilience of the Lantus franchise is ‘remarkable’ considering that its main US patent expires in February 2015.
That looks likely to hold until mid-2016 now that Sanofi has forced a stay of approval by suing Lilly, which had filed for approval of its biosimilar version of the drug.
Finally, Roche won approval for its antibody-drug conjugate Kadcyla (trastuzumab emtansine or T-DM1) in February last year. This prompted big upgrades – helped by a higher-than-expected price – and the launch has gone on to beat many analysts’ expectations.
Falling trajectory
But it has not all been good news across the board. Merck might well be the proud owner of one of the most hotly tipped drugs of the past year in the form of its anti-PD1 immunotherapy, but unfortunately it also sells the most downgraded one.
Its diabetes pill Januvia (sitagliptin) and the metformin combination therapy known as Janumet have been struggling to maintain momentum, and consensus sales forecasts have been creeping down for some time.
The hugely successful franchise comprises the first DPP-IV to reach the market back in 2006, but has more recently struggled to fend off competition from the growing GLP-1 agonist class – and an ambitious Novo Nordisk with Victoza (liraglutide) – as well as the newly-launched SGLT2 inhibitors.
Pfizer’s Xeljanz has also had a disappointing lift off. Analysts pinned huge expectations to the novel rheumatoid arthritis pill but safety concerns prompted a less enthusiastic welcome by the market, EP says.
The drug’s failure to win approval in Europe, where regulators remain unconvinced about risk versus benefit, also put a big dent in forecasts.
Likewise with Eliquis, huge expectations followed by a lacklustre launch prompted a gradual erosion of the perceived sales potential of the oral blood thinner.
However, signs are that analysts believe the huge marketing push that Bristol-Myers and partner Pfizer are putting behind the product will pay off.
Ben Adams
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