Pfizer still at number 1, but Lipitor to slip
pharmafile | May 4, 2010 | News story | Sales and Marketing | Humira, Lipitor, Pfizer, sales
New research suggests that the pharma world is going to be shaken up over the next few years – although one name will not be dislodged from its perch.
Pfizer will remain the number one seller of drugs over the next six years despite a drop in sales, according to research by EvaluatePharma.
But the analyst’s forecast says Abbott’s rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira will replace Pfizer’s cholesterol treatment Lipitor – which goes off-patent in 2011 – as the world’s biggest-selling brand by 2016.
Humira is expected to have sales of $10.1 billion in 2016, ahead of another anticipated frontrunner, Roche’s cancer drug Avastin.
Pfizer will lose 2% of its current sales over the next six years, dropping to $47.1 billion, the report says, but its merger with Wyeth will allow it to retain the top sales spot – just ahead of Merck ($46.3 billion projected sales), which last year completed its own merger with Schering-Plough.
The big winner from outside pharma’s established circle of companies will be generic specialist Teva, according to the research.
The Israel-based company will edge manufacturers such as Lilly, Amgen and Bristol-Myers Squibb out of the top ten over the next six years, a logical consequence of the erosion in sales of several current blockbusters losing their exclusivity.
This research will be regarded with interest because it points to the future of the sector following this so-called “patent cliff”.
In addition to prescription drug sales, EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2016 looked at R&D spend, therapy area growth and pipeline prospects.
It sees a rosy future for biotech products which treat cancers and rheumatic disorders, saying such brands will occupy most of the top sales slots at that time.
When it comes to small molecules products, only AstraZeneca’s cholesterol drug Crestor and GlaxoSmithKline’s respiratory brand Advair will be on the radar, it predicts.
“The next seven years will see huge growth in sales of complex biologics, driven in part by the premium price they can command, and the industry’s productivity in growing these compounds to market,” said the company’s chief executive Jonathan de Pass.
“This is the first time this data has been available and will provide a valuable insight into the new competitive pharma landscape,” he concluded.
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