NHS will be ‘unrecognisable’ in 10 years’ time, say doctors
pharmafile | April 16, 2007 | News story | |Â Â NHSÂ
Most young doctors believe the NHS will be unrecognisable in 10 years' time, a new survey has revealed.
The research, published at the BMA Junior Members Forum in Dundee, shows most young doctors are very concerned about the growing role of the private sector- and almost half think that job insecurity will force them to find work outside the NHS.
Around 1,000 young doctors responded to a web-based survey conducted on behalf of the BMA asking how the NHS would look in 2017.
Opinion was virtually unanimous on the role of the private sector in the NHS, with 94% believing it would continue to grow – but only 15% believed that this would benefit patients.
Around half (46%) suggested that at least 50% of NHS care would be delivered by private providers in 10 years' time, with some predicting the figure would be as high as three quarters
Just over 60% said they were very concerned about the fragmentation of the NHS and a further third were somewhat concerned
The poll was commissioned to tie in with the theme of this year's BMA Junior Members Forum - 'NHS going, going, gone?'
Dr Andrew Thomson, a Forfar GP who will chair the conference, said: "Doctors fear that current reforms are damaging the NHS beyond repair. We seem to be selling off the service to the highest bidder without considering the legacy for future generations of patients. Government reforms are having negative effects on both services and the morale of doctors. We need to find ways of moving the NHS towards a period of stability – at the moment it is under serious threat.
Many of the survey respondents are among the 34,250 junior doctors currently applying for 18,500 specialist posts in the UK. The survey suggests that the problems with the government's Modernising Medical Careers reforms have created unprecedented pessimism about future employment possibilities:
Only half (50%) thought that medicine is now a job for life, and virtually the same number saw themselves having left the NHS in 10 years' time. Only a third of these respondents said that this was through choice
Just 17% thought that doctors would automatically get a job in the NHS on completion of their training in future
Dr Jo Hilborne, chairman of the BMA Junior Doctors Committee, said: "Despite the fact that the UK remains short of fully trained medical staff, the future for many young doctors is looking pretty grim. The government's handling of training reforms, and workforce planning generally, has been shockingly bad. It's time for them to explain what's going to happen to the thousands of competent, dedicated, junior doctors who are currently staring into a career black hole. We will not stand by and let them be consigned to the scrap-heap."
Many respondents also thought that limitations may need to be placed on services available through the NHS:
Three in five (61%) thought it was unlikely that the NHS would be free at the point of use to all patients in 2017
Four in five (83%) thought that the range of services provided by the NHS free at the point of use would decrease
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