Hepatitis B market to double by 2010
pharmafile | June 14, 2005 | News story | Sales and Marketing |Â Â Â
The hepatitis B market will double in size by 2010 and hit sales of $1 billion, according to analysts Datamonitor.
The leap in sales will be driven by two recently approved treatments, Bristol-Myers Squibb's Baraclude and Roche's Pegasys, along with the development of new antiviral drugs and increased use of combination therapies.
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a chronic disease which cannot currently be cured, though the introduction of an HBV vaccination has led to a significant decrease in new infections.
The virus is potentially life-threatening, with between 500,000 and a million people dying each year from primary liver cancer caused by the disease.
In the UK, where the disease is predominantly transmitted by sexual contact, the DH estimates around 180,000 people are currently suffering from the disease with the vaccination only offered to high-risk groups, like sex workers and drug users.
Historically, there has been limited development in antiviral treatments and the market is characterised as immature, with sales of around $500 million.
The few treatments on the market aim to suppress replication of the virus, reducing the risk of liver disease and cancer.
Datamonitor believes this market is set for dramatic upsurge, with Baraclude (entecavir) and Pegasys (peginterferon alfa-2a) key to growth.
Both treatments offer only incremental improvement to the standard antiviral treatments GSK's Zeffix (lamivudine) and Gilead's Hepsera (adefovir dipivoxil) but Datamonitor forecast that Baraclude will replace Zeffix as the first-line treatment.
"It is mainly due to its better resistance profile combined with the higher potency that Baraclude will gradually establish itself as the antiviral agent of choice for first-line therapy," said Datamonitor.
Baraclude received fast-track US approval this year, with Datamonitor predicting sales of $300 million – this figure could rise depending on the drug's pricing in key European markets, like UK and Germany.
New generation hepatitis treatment Pegasys is also forecast to drive growth after its approval in the US and EU this year. The drug, already the world's biggest selling hepatitis C treatment, has proved to be more effective in treating the most difficult strain of the virus (HbeAG negative or variant HBV) than Zeffix. Physicians are expected to switch across to Pegasys, which has considerable scope for growth as a combined therapy with antiviral therapies.
The growth in the two drugs is expected to be maintained by the potential launches of Novartis' telbivudine and Gilead's clevudine in 2007, though the market is not expected to witness any further launches until 2009/10.
As more companies increase their exposure to the hepatitis B market, there is likely to be more opportunities for the use of combination therapy, which has had positive feedback from physicians.
Meanwhile, the British Liver Trust has called for government funding to combat the disease, which it says is under pressure from lifestyle trends, like obesity and high alcohol consumption.
Alison Rogers, the trust's chief executive, said: "More specific government funding and resources are required if we are to create a greater awareness of the risks of viral hepatitis which is set to make a major impact on the increasing burden of liver disease."
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