Global prescriptions cost to hit $1 trillion
pharmafile | November 20, 2013 | News story | Medical Communications, Research and Development, Sales and Marketing | IMS, UK, prescriptions
The worldwide cost of medicine prescriptions will for the first time hit $1 trillion next year as drugs get more costly and new markets increase their healthcare spend.
The rise is being projected by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics who says growth will return after a flat 2013.
The reason for this year’s stagnation has predominately come from patent expiries, healthcare austerity linked to the ongoing recession in mature markets, as well as poor economic growth in general.
But 2014 will see spend hit the $1 trillion figure, fuelled by new and expensive treatments as well as an increase in healthcare expenditure from China.
In fact the Institute which is the consultancy arm of IMS Health, said China should see growth of 14-17% over the coming five years, reflecting expansion in healthcare by its government.
By then it will have overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest market after the US, making it a major player in the global arena.
This rise in spending from China and other emerging markets is chiefly coming from growing middle classes in the regions, and in turn is being matched by an expansion in universal health coverage programmes to extend provision – and targeted public health policies such as rising vaccination rates.
Michael Kleinrock, director of research at IMS, said: “The pipeline is really packed, and we’re on track for absolute growth after passing through a low point driven by the depth of the patent expiry cliff. There is a bit of a bounce to normal levels.”
By 2017 the world spend on prescription medicines is forecast to reach $1.2 trillion and the Institute predicts the leading drug therapy areas in developed markets will be: oncology, diabetes and anti-TNF drugs for autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis.
IMS says in emerging markets pain medicine sales will continue to dominate, reflecting symptomatic and cheaper treatments rather than more targeted therapy for underlying conditions. Diseases of the central nervous system and antibiotics are ranked second and third.
Two-thirds of the total medicines market in 2017 will be accounted for by the eight markets of the US, France, Germany, the UK, Italy and Spain, as well as China and Japan, which will also be responsible for more than half of the total growth in spending.
The Institute also highlights the broader use of innovative medicines ahead including oral rheumatoid arthritis drugs, cystic fibrosis treatments, and medicines for melanoma and prostate cancer. And it predicts the launch of powerful new treatments for multiple sclerosis, Hepatitis C, heart failure and malaria.
Ben Adams
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