Emerging markets and generics poised to drive pharma growth
pharmafile | April 20, 2010 | News story | Sales and Marketing | IMS, em, emerging markets
The global pharma market will reach $1.1 trillion in 2014 through growth primarily driven by emerging markets and generics, according to industry analysts.
IMS Health said performance in ‘pharmerging’ markets would more than off-set drug spending pressures in developed markets, adding that it expects to see a compound annual rate of 5-8% through to 2014 and 4-6% growth this year.
Murray Aitken, senior vice president of healthcare insight, said: “Patient demand for pharmaceuticals will remain robust, despite the ongoing effects of the economic downturn being felt in many parts of the world.
“In developed markets with publicly funded healthcare plans, pressure by payers to curb drug spending growth will only intensify, but that will be more than offset by the ongoing, rapid expansion of demand in the pharmerging markets.”
Aitken added: “Net growth over the next five years is expected to be strong – even as the industry faces the peak years of patent expiries for innovative drugs introduced 10-15 years ago and subsequent entry of lower-cost generic alternatives.”
Generics and emerging markets
The pharma industry’s geographic focus continues to shift towards ‘pharmerging’ countries, which comprise of: Brazil, Turkey, Russia, China, India, Mexico, South Korea, Venezuela, Poland, Argentina, Vietnam, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the Ukraine
These markets are expected to grow at a 14-17% pace through to 2014, while major developed markets will grow at 3-6 percent.
The US will remain the single largest market, with 3-6% growth expected annually in the next five years.
The industry is also approaching the peak years of patent expiries – over the next five years IMS predicts products with sales of more than $142 billion are expected to face generic competition in major developed markets.
Collectively, the impact of patients shifting to lower-cost generics in major therapy areas such as cholesterol regulators, antipsychotics and anti-ulcerants, will reduce total drug spending by about $80-100 billion worldwide through 2014.
This impact particularly will be felt in the US, where nearly two-thirds of the total value of patent expiries will occur. These will peak in 2011 and 2012 when six of today’s ten largest products are expected to face generic competition.
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