China driving global pharma growth
pharmafile | October 13, 2010 | News story | Sales and Marketing | China, emerging markets, sales
The global pharma market is forecast to reach $880 billion by 2011, driven by growth in the Chinese market.
Analysts at IMS Health predict pharma sales in China, now the world’s third largest market, will increase by over a quarter to more than $50 billion next year.
Meanwhile, the 17 ‘pharmerging’ countries – IMS’ term for Brazil, Turkey, Russia, China, India, Mexico, South Korea, Venezuela, Poland, Argentina, Vietnam, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the Ukraine – are forecast to grow at a more than respectable 15-17% during 2011, to end at $170-180 billion.
Overall the analysts say pharma will see an increase next year of between 5-7% in the market, slightly up on this year’s anticipated 4-5% growth, but the contribution from emerging markets will be key.
Many of these markets are benefiting from greater government spending on healthcare and broader public and private healthcare funding, which is driving greater demand and access to medicines.
Among major developed countries, Japan is forecast to grow 5-7% in 2011, and the analysts say biennial price cuts will have little impact.
The five major European markets: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK will collectively grow at a slower pace of just 1-3 percent.
The US will remain the single largest pharma market, with 3-5% growth expected next year, taking sales to $320- $330 billion, which is up from $310 billion forecast for this year but doesn’t include the impact of off-invoice discounts or rebates.
IMS senior VP Murray Aitken said: “While the overall market will appear to rebound somewhat in 2011, the underlying constraints to growth in developed markets are stronger than ever – including the impact of major patent expiries and payer mechanisms to limit drug spending.”
“We expect the pharmerging markets to continue their rapid expansion next year and remain strong sources of growth, and also see the potential for several significant innovative treatment options that are becoming available for patients in areas that include metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis and acute coronary syndrome.”
Generic pressures for pharma blockbusters
Meanwhile, IMS reports that in 2011, products with sales of more than $30 billion are expected to face the prospect of generic competition in the major developed markets.
In the US alone, Pfizer’s Lipitor, Sanofi-Aventis and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Plavix, and Zyprexa from Lilly, which together accounted for more than 93 million prescriptions dispensed in the past 12 months and generated over $17 billion in total sales, will likely lose market exclusivity.
The full impact of patients shifting to lower-cost generic alternatives for these products, as well as other brands in their therapy classes, will mostly be felt in 2012.
Ben Adams
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