2010 and beyond
pharmafile | January 25, 2010 | News story | Sales and Marketing | em, emerging markets, industry
The global pharma market is expected to grow between 4 to 6% on a constant dollar basis and is expected to expand to 4 to 7% through to 2013.
Market analysts and consultants IMS Health say this level of growth is much lower than experienced in recent years, but that the US, still the most important market, will perform better than previously expected.
Mike Aitken, senior Vice President, Healthcare Insight, IMS has said that: “Overall, market growth is expected to remain at historically low levels, but stronger-than-expected demand in the US is lifting both our short- and longer-term forecasts. The economic climate will continue to be a dampening influence in most mature markets, particularly in those countries with rising budget deficits and publicly funded healthcare systems.”
Emerging markets
The growth of the seven main ‘Tier 1’ emerging markets: China, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and China will be sustained in the period. IMS say these markets added 51% to global growth in 2009, although still account for only 11% to global sales. Equally, Tier 2 EMs that consist of 21 smaller LEDCs including: Vietnam, Venezuela and the Czech Republic, added 22% to global growth in 2009 and 6% in global sales.
Despite internal problems, price fluctuations and difficult exchange rates – notably in Russia, China and Turkey, the Tier 1 EMs are expected to grow by 12 – 14% in 2010 and 13-16 % over the next five years. China is probably the world’s most dynamic market in pharma terms, with IMS forecasting growth at 20% + annually, and contributing 21% of overall global growth through to 2013. The IMS has shown the predicted future of these EMs, with China moving from being ranked ninth biggest market in 2003 to third by 2013. Brazil has moved from tenth place to a predicted eight and Russia has come from twenty-fifth in 2003 to a predicted sixteenth by 2013. A ‘new world order’ in the pharma industry seems to be in the making.
Healthcare access and funding
The economic downturn will too be a factor – with each country dealing with its own specific economy issues within the global picture.
Healthcare access and funding will naturally be a key issue in 2010 and beyond. IMS comments: “During the next five years, markets will be impacted by numerous payer actions, including the imposition of price cuts on existing drugs and the raising of standards required to achieve reimbursement of innovative therapies. Evidence of the value that medicines bring to the healthcare systems will be required to achieve access and funding in both developing and emerging markets.”
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