New cancer cases set to hit 17 million by 2020

pharmafile | September 2, 2009 | News story | Research and Development, Sales and Marketing Cancer, healthcare 

The next ten years will see a 30% leap in the number of new cancer cases across the world, according to research from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Ageing and growing populations will lead to an inexorable rise in new incidences of the disease, which are set to increase from just under 13 million today to almost 17 million in 2020.

Developing countries will be the worst hit – the report predicts they will see 65% of new cases, but at present only account for 5% of the money spent to fight cancer.

The EIU concludes that the "growing burden of cancer represents a silent epidemic" in regions which already face the challenge of killer diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.

Widespread adoption of 'Western' diets and lifestyle, such as drinking and smoking, are in part responsible for the rise in cancer incidence, the study says.

It also claims to be the first research to calculate the global economic burden of treating cancer, the second largest cause of death – after heart disease – in the world.

This year the cost is estimated to be $217 billion worldwide, but add in such factors as lost work time and that figure swells by an extra $69 billion.

"Our estimate of $286 billion for medical and non-medical costs and lost productivity is conservative," said EIU senior analyst Richard Stein.

"We focused on costs associated with morbidity, based on the availability of data. We know that adding in costs related to premature death – for example, lost wages that result – would increase these sums."

Availability of data on all aspects of cancer is scarce, with epidemiologic information covering relatively few people's cancer incidence and mortality, the report says.

And the research throws up a number of other issues when it comes to tackling the spread of cancer.

For one thing it estimates that cancer-related research spending this year stands at $19 billion.

But it says that figure would need to rise to $236 billion to achieve what it calls a "global funding expenditure standard" based on 2009 new cancer cases.

This standard would take per-case spending around the world to the level of the country with the lowest case fatality rate.

The report was commissioned by the foundation established by Lance Armstrong, the US cyclist who survived testicular cancer.

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