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Healthcare industry could take up to five years to stabilise after no-deal Brexit

Published on 13/03/19 at 10:37am

The healthcare industry could take up to five years to stabilise in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to pharmaceutical industry professionals surveyed by GlobalData.

Two thirds (66%) of respondents in the US, EU and UK believed that it would take more than three years for the UK to stabilise its healthcare industry, compared to just 9% who thought stabilisation would occur in less than 12 months.

Gavin Davidson, MSc, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “In the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, it is not surprising that two thirds of respondents were in consensus regarding how long it will take the UK to stabilize. Approximately 44% of the UK’s exports are traded to EU countries, with a considerable proportion representing healthcare-associated industries. Without a free trade deal being agreed upon prior to departure, the UK would no longer have access to the EU single market.”

“In extension, imports will also be significantly affected until new trading agreements are negotiated. These uncertainties have led pharmaceutical companies, such as AstraZeneca (AZ) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and patients on the NHS that are dependent on imported drugs to stockpile medications.”

“It’s exceptionally difficult to forecast just how long it will take for stabilization of the healthcare industry to occur post-Brexit, due to the multiple potential outcomes. After the monumental rejection of Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal on Monday 12th March 2019, members of Parliament will be given the opportunity to decline the notion of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, as well as to vote on the extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.”

The news comes after the Royal College of Physicians urged MPs to vote against a no-deal Brexit. In a letter to MPs, RCP president Professor Andrew Goddard wrote: “If the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, there will almost certainly be a negative impact on the health of your constituents and the NHS.”

Louis Goss

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