Sanofi to become world’s biggest drug maker
pharmafile | November 2, 2011 | News story | Medical Communications, Research and Development, Sales and Marketing | Pfizer, Sanofi, top 10
Sanofi will replace Pfizer as the world’s biggest drug maker by revenue next year, according to new forecasts.
Pfizer’s nine-year reign at the top has been driven by sales of its anti-cholesterol drug Lipitor, which made $13.4 billion in peak annual sales.
But Lipitor will go off patent in the US this month and in Europe early next year – a process that will shrink revenue from the drug to just $2 billion a year by 2016.
Sanofi is now expected to take its place at the top, followed by Novartis, Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, according to industry analysts at EvaluatePharma.
Sanofi strength
EvaluatePharma (EP) are projecting annual sales growth of 4% over the next four years for Sanofi, meaning the French firm will be capable of holding on to the top spot.
EP says the strength for Sanofi is the culmination of a decade of mega-mergers starting with the 1999 acquisition of Synthélabo in a deal worth around $30 billion, and later its $63 billion deal with Aventis in 2004.
The $20 billion takeover of Genzyme earlier this year has cemented its future success, and EP believes that sales of its new biotech’s enzyme replacement therapies should be enough to keep Sanofi at the top of the table until at least 2016.
Genzyme’s drugs will also help offset the loss of revenues from its anticoagulant Plavix, which loses US patent protection next year, and ongoing generic erosion of anticoagulant Lovenox and chemotherapy Taxotere.
Novartis will also remain firmly in second place for the coming years based on the predicted strength of its MS pill Gilenya and blood cancer treatment Tasigna – these should be enough to help offset the loss of by blood pressure drug Diovan, which has been bringing in over $6 billion in peak annual sales.
Its recent $48 billion acquisition of eye specialist Alcon will also help the group’s top-line sales outside of drug products, illustrating the strength of diversification for the firm.
Merck to struggle
Merck, which is currently in fourth position, will drop to sixth next year. Despite buying Schering-Plough for $41 billion in 2009, the US firm will struggle to expand its drugs business over the next four years, according to EP, letting faster growing companies GlaxoSmithKline and Roche climb ahead.
Teva reaches top 10
A notable entrant to the top ten next year will be the Israeli generics drug maker Teva, which is predicted to post strong 7% annual sales growth over the period with both its generic and branded drug segments expanding.
This has been achieved largely through an aggressive acquisition policy that has seen the company make five multi-billion dollar deals in the last seven years, including its recent $6.5 billion purchase of US biopharmaceutical firm Cephalon.
|
Firm |
Rank: 2011 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
Rx/OTC sales: 2011 |
2012 |
2014 |
2016 |
|
Sanofi |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
$48bn |
$52bn |
$55bn |
$58bn |
|
Novartis |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
$50bn |
$50bn |
$52bn |
$55bn |
|
Pfizer |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
$54bn |
$50bn |
$50bn |
$52bn |
|
GSK |
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
$39bn |
$41bn |
$46bn |
$51bn |
|
Roche |
6 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
$39bn |
$44bn |
$46bn |
$49bn |
|
Merck |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
$42bn |
$42bn |
$41bn |
$43bn |
|
J&J |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
$25bn |
$27bn |
$29bn |
$32bn |
|
AZ |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
$32bn |
$29bn |
$28bn |
$26bn |
|
Teva |
12 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
$17bn |
$20bn |
$23bn |
$24bn |
|
Abbott* |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
$22bn |
$24bn |
$24bn |
$24bn |
Source: EvaluatePharma
*Abbott has recently announced that it will split into two separate firms – one focusing on pharma products and other on medical devices and diagnostics
Ben Adams
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